Extinction

When the "dinosaur" acts become extinct, so will a large aspect of the touring business. The Rolling Stones, The Who, The Eagles, Madonna and Streisand are a few acts that generate huge revenues for managers, agents and promoters - and have exorbitantly high ticket prices. Others that fall into the high touring revenue category that aren't quite dinosaurs, such as U2 or Celine Dion, aren't spring chickens either. Other legacy artists who have more of mid-range priced ticket such as Clapton, Springsteen, Rod Stewart and Bob Seger aren't going to be working forever. When all these types of artists stop working (and it will happen), the business will be greatly affected.

A lot of these artists aren't guaranteed sell outs anymore. There is a lot of papering going on and there are a lot of prime tickets being sold by the promoters directly to scalpers, I mean "ticket brokers", to maximize potential profits. The artists and promoters are raping the public for every last drop because they see the train coming off the tracks sooner rather than later. Oh, and there is nothing like all these additional fees tacked on to the ticket price which generate hundreds of millions of dollars for all involved.

There is no band or artist from the past 15 years that appears to be on the path of being able to command huge guarantees 20-30 years after the initial period when they broke into the big time. There are many reasons for this. One major reason being that the record labels stopped developing talent and stopped nurturing bands.

They went for the quick buck and started pushing talentless crap that would have 15 minutes of fame. This has created a lot of problems for the labels and one of them which is rarely discussed is that all these acts with no depth and musical talent will have no lasting catalogue sales for the labels. Where as now they have Springsteen, Miles Davis, The Beach Boys, David Bowie, etc which represent catalogues that consistently move solid numbers, the current musical landscape does not boast a lot of potential artists that will be a return investment for the labels.

This directly affects touring. The "dinosaur" acts are legacy artists and they represent a lot of the catalogue artists referenced above. They are artists that created a large core fan base, but that also have enough cross-over hits to generate solid ticket sales to casual consumers as well.

Who is going to command $150-$350 ticket sales in 15 years from the current generation of mainstream artists? Green Day? Maroon 5? No Doubt? Beyonce? Nickelback? Fergie? Linkin Park? Korn? Tool? Timbaland? Avril Lavigne? Amy Winehouse? Eminem? Justin Timberlake? Maybe Carrie Underwood or Michael Buble?

A solid selling album doesn't mean s**t anymore. The public moves on. Alanis Morrissette released one of the epic albums of the mid-90's and she is having trouble filling theatres. Certainly she has more artistic credibility and talent than a handful of the current stars I just referenced. Will they suffer the same fate in the next 10 years? Even if one or two doesn't, will they be able to fill arenas around the world over the course of a year charging over $100 a ticket? Does anyone think that is a possibility? Some of the best non-dinosaur live acts in the world right now such as Pearl Jam and Radiohead (who no longer sell large quantities of records) have ticket prices hovering in the $50 range in the prime of their careers. Will they be such a draw in 20 years that they can rip off the consumer by tripling their ticket prices? Doubtful.

So when The Rolling Stones finally call it a day, Townshend decides he can't take touring under The Who banner any longer, Babs finally "really" retires, etc etc etc - the touring business will be f**ked unless somehow, some amazingly talented artists come along that touch the hearts and souls of millions with their music on a consistent basis for at least a decade. Then maybe, the touring industry will have a product they can overprice and sell to the public.

There is still good music out there. And there are a handful of artists that will have enough of a fan base to work for many years to come and make a nice living doing it. But the days of stadium tours at $100+ a ticket with $1 Million guarantees for an act that is 30 years old is coming to an end. How will all the greedy executives in the concert business react? Like the greedy executives in the record business that are desperately holding on to an outdated business model? Hey, it is the entertainment business, why not live in Fantasy Land for as long as possible? Time will tell. But in 10-15 years, the concert business that is known today will be like what the record labels were 10 years ago; a distant memory.